Q4 2023 Market Commentary

In our Q3 2023 newsletter, we expressed optimism that the US economy would achieve a soft landing, also referred to as "The Golden Path." It appears that the Fed has successfully engineered such an outcome thus far. With the Fed indicating a pivot and the possibility of multiple interest rate cuts in 2024, there is a strong likelihood that both the equity and bond markets will experience upward movement in the coming year. The probability of this outcome is further heightened with the approaching presidential election.

In the near term, however, we maintain a cautious stance due to short-term market overbought signals evident in the S&P MACD and Relative Strength charts, as well as the CNN Fear and Greed Index. Our current investment stands at 70%, and we remain prepared to adjust allocations based on our models and a thorough analysis of both fundamental and technical factors.

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